← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Angoula
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 48% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 24% | 28% | 3.90 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Toulouse FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 54% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 46% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse FC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Abdulay Juma Bah · OGC Nice |
| 45' | ⚽ | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · OGC Nice |
| 51' | 🟨 | Morgan Sanson · OGC Nice |
| 55' | ⚽ | Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse FC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Cristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Julian Vignolo · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 15 |
| 10 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 961.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.39 | 2.15 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1673.63 | 1619.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.54 | -41.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.40 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 14.93 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.73 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | 0.88 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.51 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.87 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.39 |