← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj Salem
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 40% | 43% | 2.47 | value: +7% |
| Angers SCO win | 31% | 21% | 3.14 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.28 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Le Havre AC −0.25 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.24 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand