← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 75% | 75% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 18% | 6.42 | value: +13% |
| Nantes win | 10% | 8% | 10.55 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −1.75 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 70% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 30% | 2.88 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟥 | Arthur Vermeeren · Olympique de Marseille |
| 31' | ⚽ | Fabien Centonze · Nantes |
| 33' | 🟨 | Junior Mwanga · Nantes |
| 51' | 🟨 | Dehmaine Tabibou · Nantes |
| 54' | 🟨 | Bilal Nadir · Olympique de Marseille |
| 56' | 🟨 | Bilal Nadir · Olympique de Marseille |
| 56' | 🟥 | Bilal Nadir · Olympique de Marseille |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Rémy Cabella · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bahereba Guirassy · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 125.00 | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 1.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.32 |
| elo | 1814.96 | 1534.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.71 | -22.16 |
| eye test v1 | 1.25 | -1.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 39.80 |
| rest days | 20.76 | 22.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.69 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.60 | -9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 7.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | -0.98 |
| solidity v1 | 0.41 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 26.67 |
| state index | 1.07 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.02 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 0.69 |