← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Willy Delajod, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 61% | 70% | 1.57 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 21% | 16% | 4.65 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 18% | 14% | 5.68 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Racing Club de Lens −1 | 51% | 1.92 |
| OGC Nice −1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 53% | 1.54 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 47% | 2.63 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |