← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 14, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 50% | 57% | 1.95 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 22% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| AJ Auxerre +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 55% | 1.74 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 45% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Josué Casimir · AJ Auxerre |
| 38' | 🟥 | Nathan Ngoy · Lille OSC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Clement Akpa · AJ Auxerre |
| 50' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Lille OSC |
| 57' | ⚽ | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 60' | 🟨 | Clement Akpa · AJ Auxerre |
| 60' | 🟥 | Clement Akpa · AJ Auxerre |
| 66' | ⚽ (og) | Chancel Mbemba · AJ Auxerre |
| 77' | ⚽ | Nabil Bentaleb · Lille OSC |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |
| ⚽ |
| Soriba Diaoune · Lille OSC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Félix Correia · Lille OSC |
| 83' | ⚽ (pen) | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 86' | ⚽ | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kévin Danois · AJ Auxerre |
| 88' | 🟥 | Oussama El Azzouzi · AJ Auxerre |
| 88' | 🟥 | Romain Perraud · Lille OSC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lasso Coulibaly · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 166.00 | 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1598.36 | 1775.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.83 | 21.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | -0.87 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.80 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 2.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.74 |
| league points | 12.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 1.06 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.31 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.14 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | 0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.97 |