← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 13, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 76% | 80% | 1.27 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 10% | 6.79 | fair |
| Metz win | 10% | 10% | 10.63 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +1.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Metz +1.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 69% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Malick Mbaye · Metz |
| 31' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 39' | ⚽ | Quentin Ndjantou · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 42' | ⚽ | Jessy Deminguet · Metz |
| 63' | ⚽ | Désiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Warren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 81' | ⚽ | Giorgi Tsitaishvili · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Koffi Kouao · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |
| coach days |
| 134.00 |
| 896.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.69 |
| elo | 1567.56 | 1981.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.09 | -9.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | 1.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 52.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.84 |
| league points | 11.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 68.40 |
| rest days | 6.07 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 12.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 21.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 2.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.38 | 1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 27.07 | 24.22 |
| state index | -0.11 | 1.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | 1.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.11 | 2.24 |