← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Fri, Dec 12, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO win | 44% | 40% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.23 | value: +6% |
| Nantes win | 26% | 27% | 3.79 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Nantes −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 39% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Himad Abdelli · Angers SCO |
| 24' | 🟨 | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 60' | ⚽ | Sidiki Cherif · Angers SCO |
| 69' | 🟨 | Chidozie Awaziem · Nantes |
| 79' | 🟨 | Himad Abdelli · Angers SCO |
| 81' | ⚽ | Fabien Centonze · Nantes |
| 85' | ⚽ | Djibirin Harouna · Angers SCO |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lilian Raolisoa · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Raymond-Kopa |
| coach days | 1017.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1589.33 | 1547.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.27 | -27.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.62 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.70 |
| league points | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 5.24 | 6.16 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -0.83 |
| solidity v1 | -0.18 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.21 | 25.80 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.45 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.78 |