← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Dec 7, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 47% | 44% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.52 | value: +16% |
| Metz win | 25% | 23% | 3.87 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Metz −0.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 48% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 52% | 2.02 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |