← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 6, 08:05 PM UTC · ref: Marc Bollengier, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 73% | 74% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 17% | 6.31 | value: +5% |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 11% | 10% | 8.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −1.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −1.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 72% | 73% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand