← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 30, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 40% | 45% | 2.44 | value: +11% |
| OGC Nice win | 32% | 26% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 47% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 53% | 2.08 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ (og) | Arthur Avom Ebong · OGC Nice |
| 27' | 🟨 | Darlin Yongwa · FC Lorient |
| 31' | ⚽ | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Isak Jansson · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| coach days | 547.00 | 121.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1601.97 | 1661.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.07 | -56.22 |
| eye test v1 | -0.71 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 2.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.01 | -1.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.98 | 28.07 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 2.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.07 |