← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 57% | 62% | 1.70 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.03 | fair |
| Paris FC win | 19% | 15% | 5.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC −0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Paris FC −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 67% | 1.78 | value: +20% |
| Under | 45% | 33% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Willem Geubbels · Paris FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Hamza Igamane · Lille OSC |
| 40' | ⚽ | Olivier Giroud · Lille OSC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Paris FC |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Olivier Giroud · Lille OSC |
| 80' | ⚽ | Aïssa Mandi · Lille OSC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Lohann Doucet · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lohann Doucet · Paris FC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Marius Sivertsen Broholm · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 6 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 114.00 | 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.11 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1754.51 | 1603.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.15 | -7.98 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 14.15 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.13 | 0.69 |
| solidity v1 | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.48 | 28.09 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.10 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.07 |