← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 23, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Gael Angoula, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 52% | 51% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.83 | fair |
| Metz win | 23% | 23% | 4.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Metz −0.5 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 45% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Pathé Mboup · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 6' | ⚽ | Giorgi Tsitaishvili · Metz |
| 48' | ⚽ | Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 79' | ⚽ (og) | Soumaila Coulibaly · Metz |
| 83' | 🟨 | Fodé Ballo-Touré · Metz |
| 84' | 🟨 | Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz |
| 87' | 🟨 | Soumaila Coulibaly · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alpha Touré · Metz |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Brestois 29 | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |
| coach days |
| 1057.00 |
| 114.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.27 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1649.58 | 1594.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.16 | 34.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.70 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 15.01 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | -1.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.22 | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.54 |