← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 60% | 57% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.14 | fair |
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 16% | 18% | 5.94 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +1 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +1 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 63% | 1.81 | value: +15% |
| Under | 47% | 37% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Parc Olympique Lyonnais |