← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Nov 9, 04:15 PM UTC · ref: Stephanie Frappart, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| OGC Nice win | 42% | 40% | 2.33 | fair |
| Metz win | 32% | 28% | 3.06 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 32% | 3.67 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Metz +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| OGC Nice +0.25 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 51% | 1.72 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 49% | 2.24 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |