← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 8, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Romain Lissorgue, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 50% | 50% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Nantes win | 21% | 21% | 4.77 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Nantes −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 22' | 🟨 | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 27' | 🟨 | Loic Négo · Le Havre AC |
| 40' | 🟨 | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Hyeok-kyu Kwon · Nantes |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tylel Tati · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Younes Namli · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gautier Lloris · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days | 495.00 | 68.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1579.16 | 1557.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.61 | -19.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.76 |
| league points | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 6.07 | 6.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.21 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 29.68 | 25.41 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.09 | 0.75 |