← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Nov 1, 08:05 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Bastien, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 57% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.98 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 19% | 21% | 5.25 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille +0.75 | 52% | 1.92 |
| AJ Auxerre +0.75 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 62% | 1.95 | value: +20% |
| Under | 49% | 38% | 2.09 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |