← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 29, 08:05 PM UTC · ref: Jeremy Stinat, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 38% | 37% | 2.62 | fair |
| Paris FC win | 35% | 37% | 2.77 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +0 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Paris FC +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 47% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 67' | 🟨 | Thibault De Smet · Paris FC |
| 67' | 🟥 | Thibault De Smet · Paris FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Paris FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Vincent Marchetti · Paris FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moustapha Mbow · Paris FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.60 |
| coach days | 89.00 | 301.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.99 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1593.83 | 1794.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.62 | -4.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.24 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.58 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 5.06 | 3.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 1.81 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.14 | 27.28 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.24 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 0.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 2.38 |