← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Wed, Oct 29, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: Bastien Dechepy, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 52% | 32% | 1.87 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 24% | 31% | 4.02 | value: +23% |
| Draw | 24% | 37% | 4.06 | value: +52% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC +0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| OGC Nice +0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 40% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Sofiane Diop · OGC Nice |
| 35' | 🟨 | Antoine Mendy · OGC Nice |
| 35' | 🟨 | Charles Vanhoutte · OGC Nice |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ayyoub Bouaddi · Lille OSC |
| 75' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 78' | 🟨 | Tiago Gouveia · OGC Nice |
| 82' | 🟨 | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Isak Jansson · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 13 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days | 89.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1701.22 | 1794.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.97 | 16.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 1.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 2.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 3.07 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | -1.13 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.20 |
| squad age | 25.56 | 26.95 |
| state index | 0.44 | 1.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.57 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.85 |