← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 78% | 76% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 17% | 6.74 | value: +15% |
| Metz win | 8% | 7% | 12.77 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC −1.75 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Metz −1.75 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 51% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 49% | 2.76 | value: +35% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Lille OSC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Hamza Igamane · Lille OSC |
| 34' | ⚽ | Félix Correia · Lille OSC |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ayyoub Bouaddi · Lille OSC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Félix Correia · Lille OSC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Cléo Mélières · Metz |
| 64' | ⚽ | Romain Perraud · Lille OSC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jessy Deminguet · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| ⚽ |
| Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ibou Sane · Metz |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 86.00 | 86.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.54 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1788.66 | 1550.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.37 | -30.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | -1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 49.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.70 |
| league points | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 88.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 6.95 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | — |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 0.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 6.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.66 | 0.43 |
| solidity v1 | -0.09 | -1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.95 | 26.04 |
| state index | 0.75 | -1.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | 1.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.41 | 2.20 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.85 |