← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Fri, Oct 24, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Ruddy Buquet, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 61% | 64% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.17 | fair |
| Nantes win | 16% | 14% | 6.29 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Paris FC −1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 58% | 1.82 | value: +6% |
| Under | 47% | 42% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Youssef El Arabi · Nantes |
| 15' | ⚽ | Samir Sophian Chergui · Paris FC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Junior Mwanga · Nantes |
| 38' | ⚽ | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Hamari Traoré · Paris FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Maxime López · Paris FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Hyeok-kyu Kwon · Nantes |
| 69' | 🟨 | Thibault De Smet · Paris FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Jean Bouin |
| coach days | 84.00 | 53.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.98 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1606.47 | 1572.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.68 | -3.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.80 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 5.24 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.87 | -0.28 |
| solidity v1 | -0.45 | -0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 28.27 | 24.67 |
| state index | 0.47 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.16 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 0.98 |