← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: François Letexier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 61% | 58% | 1.59 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | 4.20 | fair |
| Metz win | 16% | 18% | 6.14 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz −1 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Toulouse FC −1 | 50% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 49% | 2.20 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 34' | 🟨 | Giorgi Abuashvili · Metz |
| 37' | 🟨 | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Sadibou Sané · Metz |
| 74' | 🟨 | Emersonn · Toulouse FC |
| 79' | ⚽ | Yann Gboho · Toulouse FC |
| 84' | ⚽ | Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 2 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| 871.00 |
| 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1674.22 | 1560.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.21 | -29.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 51.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 14.09 | 15.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -0.47 | -1.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 25.22 | 26.71 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.74 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 2.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.73 | 0.95 |