← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Eric Wattellier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 52% | 52% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 30% | 3.81 | value: +15% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 22% | 17% | 4.56 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 51% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 49% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Danny Namaso · AJ Auxerre |
| 18' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josué Casimir · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | 🟨 | Clement Akpa · AJ Auxerre |
| 56' | ⚽ | Seko Fofana · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Anthony Rouault · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 90' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 79.00 | 110.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1669.35 | 1620.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.99 | -19.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.31 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 66.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| league points | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | -0.08 | -0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 25.55 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.07 |