← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 19, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Marc Bollengier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 36% | 36% | 2.75 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 35% | 33% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.37 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 +0 | 51% | 1.97 |
| FC Lorient +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 51% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 49% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Théo Le Bris · FC Lorient |
| 34' | ⚽ | Junior Dina Ebimbe · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 44' | ⚽ (og) | Jean-Victor Makengo · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 51' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Faye · FC Lorient |
| 51' | 🟨 | Ludovic Ajorque · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Arsène Kouassi · FC Lorient |
| 84' | 🟨 | Bamo Meïté · FC Lorient |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 89' | 🟨 | Julien Le Cardinal · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 89' | ⚽ | Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aiyegun Tosin · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 505.00 | 1022.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1619.20 | 1673.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.42 | 1.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.30 | 67.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| league points | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 15.85 | 14.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -1.16 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 26.19 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.75 |