← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Oct 18, 07:05 PM UTC · ref: Bastien Dechepy, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 72% | 73% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.33 | value: +12% |
| Le Havre AC win | 10% | 6% | 9.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Le Havre AC −1.5 | 51% | 2.00 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1.5 | 49% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 64% | 1.66 | value: +6% |
| Under | 41% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand