← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Oct 5, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Jeremie Pignard, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 42% | 34% | 2.32 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 30% | 37% | 3.31 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 54% | 1.91 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 46% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Breel Embolo · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 29' | ⚽ | Esteban Lepaul · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Simon Ebonog · Le Havre AC |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jérémy Jacquet · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Issa Soumaré · Le Havre AC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Valentin Rongier · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 79' | ⚽ | Rassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 461.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1553.55 | 1670.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.41 | -2.78 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 46.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 87.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.88 |
| solidity v1 | 0.80 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.63 | 27.62 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.26 |