← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 28, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: Abdelatif Kherradji, France
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| OGC Nice win | 48% | 59% | 2.10 | value: +24% |
| Paris FC win | 26% | 19% | 4.09 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.85 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 55% | 1.88 |
| Paris FC −0.25 | 45% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 56% | 67% | 1.73 | value: +15% |
| Under | 44% | 33% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand