← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Sep 27, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: Benoît Millot, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 54% | 54% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.61 | fair |
| Nantes win | 19% | 18% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −0.75 | 52% | 1.95 |
| Toulouse FC −0.75 | 48% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 54% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Mayckel Lahdo · Nantes |
| 47' | ⚽ | Yann Gboho · Toulouse FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Anthony Lopes · Nantes |
| 61' | ⚽ | Louis Leroux · Nantes |
| 66' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Nantes |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Louis Leroux · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 849.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.94 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1662.94 | 1572.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.37 | -0.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| league points | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.07 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 24.45 | 25.06 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.40 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.78 |