← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Abdelatif Kherradji, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 46% | 34% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 39% | 3.40 | value: +33% |
| FC Lorient win | 25% | 27% | 3.81 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 48% | 1.71 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 52% | 2.25 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Bamo Meïté · FC Lorient |
| 15' | 🟨 | Arouna Sangante · Le Havre AC |
| 21' | ⚽ | Aiyegun Tosin · FC Lorient |
| 25' | 🟨 | Ayumu Seko · Le Havre AC |
| 41' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mbwana Samatta · Le Havre AC |
| 47' | ⚽ | Issa Soumaré · Le Havre AC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Montassar Talbi · FC Lorient |
| 52' | 🟨 | Arthur Avom Ebong · FC Lorient |
| 55' | 🟨 | Mohamed Bamba · FC Lorient |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| 🟨 |
| Abdoulaye Faye · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 447.00 | 477.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 3.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1551.19 | 1613.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.04 | -8.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 2.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.85 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -0.22 | -0.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 29.59 | 25.31 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.70 | 2.07 |