← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 21, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: Marc Bollengier, France
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 43% | 32% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 28% | 40% | 3.60 | value: +44% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| AJ Auxerre +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.31 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Gideon Mensah · AJ Auxerre |
| 45' | ⚽ | Danny Namaso · AJ Auxerre |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dayann Methalie · Toulouse FC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Guillaume Restes · Toulouse FC |
| 64' | 🟥 | Fredrik Oppegård · AJ Auxerre |
| 82' | 🟨 | Mark McKenzie · Toulouse FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Djibril Sidibé · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Hidalgo · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |
| coach days | 82.00 | 843.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1622.79 | 1672.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.13 | 22.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.20 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | — |
| league points | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.84 | 7.09 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.07 | -0.24 |
| solidity v1 | -0.38 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.72 | 24.39 |
| state index | -0.26 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.43 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.51 | 1.58 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.63 |