← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Sep 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 52% | 58% | 1.88 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 22% | 17% | 4.49 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Toulouse FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 40% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 60% | 2.02 | value: +21% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 56' | 🟨 | Guillaume Restes · Toulouse FC |
| 80' | 🟥 | Alexis Vossah · Toulouse FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Olivier Giroud · Lille OSC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Chancel Mbemba · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Bentaleb · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ethan Mbappé · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 44.00 | 836.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1801.28 | 1677.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.62 | 27.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| league points | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 39.40 |
| rest days | 14.92 | 14.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | -0.05 |
| solidity v1 | 0.27 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.36 | 24.40 |
| state index | 1.28 | 0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.30 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.67 |