← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Fri, Sep 12, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: T. Leonard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 70% | 54% | 1.36 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 39% | 5.66 | value: +118% ⚠ |
| FC Lorient win | 12% | 8% | 8.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Lorient −1.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 71% | 1.67 | value: +19% |
| Under | 39% | 29% | 2.79 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 4 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 0 |
| 18 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand