← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 07:05 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 71% | 74% | 1.35 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 13% | 5.63 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 11% | 12% | 8.84 | value: +10% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC +1.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC +1.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 39% | 2.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | João Neves · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 9' | ⚽ | Bradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 14' | ⚽ | João Neves · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Charlie Cresswell · Toulouse FC |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 78' | ⚽ | João Neves · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 89' | ⚽ | Yann Gboho · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alexis Vossah · Toulouse FC |
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Paris Saint-Germain FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.85 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 821.00 | 791.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1685.43 | 1967.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.58 | -5.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.66 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 92.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 71.00 |
| rest days | 6.16 | 8.01 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 2.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.61 | 1.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 24.09 | 25.03 |
| state index | 0.81 | 1.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | 1.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.07 | 0.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.92 |