← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 44% | 51% | 2.18 | value: +10% |
| FC Lorient win | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| FC Lorient +0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 51% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Arthur Avom Ebong · FC Lorient |
| 37' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Faye · FC Lorient |
| 40' | 🟨 | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille OSC |
| 46' | ⚽ | Romain Perraud · Lille OSC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille OSC |
| 59' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 64' | ⚽ | Aiyegun Tosin · FC Lorient |
| 69' | 🟨 | Romain Perraud · Lille OSC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 77' | ⚽ | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille OSC |
| 80' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| ⚽ |
| Hamza Igamane · Lille OSC |
| 87' | ⚽ | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hamza Igamane · Lille OSC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Osame Sahraoui · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 455.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1638.62 | 1785.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.22 | -8.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.27 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.95 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.48 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 5.84 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.40 | 1.03 |
| solidity v1 | 0.56 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.39 | 25.57 |
| state index | 1.14 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.53 |