← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 24, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 37% | 29% | 2.68 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 35% | 40% | 2.80 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.35 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0 | 52% | 1.92 |
| FC Lorient +0 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 50% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 48% | 50% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟥 | Mahdi Camara · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 11' | 🟥 | Christopher Wooh · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Karim Dermane · FC Lorient |
| 41' | 🟨 | Formose Mendy · FC Lorient |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sambou Soumano · FC Lorient |
| 47' | ⚽ | Aiyegun Tosin · FC Lorient |
| 65' | ⚽ | Pablo Pagis · FC Lorient |
| 69' | ⚽ | Théo Le Bris · FC Lorient |
| 71' | 🟨 | Arsène Kouassi · FC Lorient |
| 84' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 18 | Fouls | 7 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir |
| 🟨 |
| Panos Katseris · FC Lorient |
| 86' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 449.00 | 23.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1654.57 | 1728.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.39 | 0.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 59.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 8.76 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.29 | 0.15 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 26.05 |
| state index | 0.87 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.22 |