← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sat, Aug 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 67% | 78% | 1.42 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 19% | 14% | 5.09 | fair |
| Paris FC win | 14% | 8% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille −1.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Paris FC −1.25 | 50% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 65% | 1.63 | value: +5% |
| Under | 40% | 35% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand