← Ligue 1 2025-26 · Sun, Aug 17, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: A. Kherradji
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 38% | 27% | 2.55 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 32% | 40% | 3.14 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.29 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AJ Auxerre +0 | 55% | 1.80 |
| FC Lorient +0 | 45% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 54% | 49% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 51% | 2.10 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |