← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 63% | 63% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 21% | 5.01 | value: +7% |
| Le Havre AC win | 18% | 15% | 5.51 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Le Havre AC −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 62% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 38% | 3.03 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sebastian Nanasi · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 70' | ⚽ | Josué Casimir · Le Havre AC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sebastian Nanasi · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrew Omobamidele · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrew Omobamidele · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟥 | Andrew Omobamidele · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days |
| 320.00 |
| 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1737.46 | 1530.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.33 | -4.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.55 |
| league points | 57.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 0.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.35 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 21.63 | 26.73 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.95 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.56 | 0.99 |