← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Kherradji
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 85% | 82% | 1.13 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 11% | 9.95 | value: +14% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 5% | 6% | 19.33 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −2.5 | 51% | 2.00 |
| AJ Auxerre −2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 78% | 74% | 1.23 | fair |
| Under | 22% | 26% | 4.37 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand