← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 64% | 62% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.83 | value: +8% |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 16% | 15% | 6.12 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −1 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Stade Brestois 29 −1 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 63% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 37% | 2.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
| 19' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 26' | 🟨 | Bradley Locko · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Badredine Bouanani · OGC Nice |
| 33' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Ndiaye · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Hugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 75' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 82' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mama Baldé · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ali Abdi |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 350.00 |
| 867.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.22 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1724.40 | 1700.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.92 | -15.26 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.71 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 57.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.10 |
| solidity v1 | -0.24 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 29.44 |
| state index | 0.71 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.27 |