← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, May 17, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 60% | 60% | 1.60 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.54 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 18% | 19% | 5.41 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Olympique de Marseille −1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 65% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 35% | 2.83 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand