β Ligue 1 2024-25 Β· Sat, May 17, 07:00 PM UTC Β· ref: S. Frappart
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 81% | 75% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 17% | 8.08 | value: +35% |
| Angers SCO win | 7% | 8% | 15.63 | value: +25% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Angers SCO β2.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Olympique Lyonnais β2.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 76% | 66% | 1.25 | fair |
| Under | 24% | 34% | 4.07 | value: +40% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand