← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| OGC Nice win | 44% | 44% | 2.16 | fair |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.92 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| OGC Nice +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.25 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 44% | 2.63 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand