← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, May 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 53% | 51% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.83 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 22% | 24% | 4.54 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Angers SCO +0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 55% | 1.88 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 45% | 2.03 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Esteban Lepaul · Angers SCO |
| 43' | ⚽ | Dilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mamadou Sarr · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 48' | ⚽ | Esteban Lepaul · Angers SCO |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jordan Lefort · Angers SCO |
| 83' | 🟨 | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ousmane Camara · Angers SCO |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days |
| 801.00 |
| 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.47 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1530.41 | 1751.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.08 | 29.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.99 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 33.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 85.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.25 | 7.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.10 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 21.83 |
| state index | -0.08 | 1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.80 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.74 | 1.58 |