← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 03:15 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 66% | 62% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +5% |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 15% | 18% | 6.74 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Racing Club de Lens −1.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 65% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 35% | 3.00 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand