← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, May 4, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Nantes win | 49% | 44% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 37% | 3.40 | value: +25% |
| Angers SCO win | 23% | 19% | 4.38 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Angers SCO −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Nantes −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 55% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 46% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |