← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 27, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 66% | 68% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 13% | 12% | 7.57 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO +1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Lille OSC +1.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 2.01 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Bafodé Diakité · Lille OSC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alexsandro Ribeiro · Lille OSC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Hakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille OSC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Matías Fernández-Pardo · Lille OSC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Thomas Meunier · Lille OSC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Yassin Belkhdim · Angers SCO |
| 67' | 🟨 | Bafodé Diakité · Lille OSC |
| 67' | 🟥 | Bafodé Diakité · Lille OSC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Angers SCO | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Raymond Kopa |
| coach days |
| 788.00 |
| 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1524.35 | 1786.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.25 | -0.50 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | 0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.20 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.77 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 0.75 |
| solidity v1 | -1.23 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.64 | 26.65 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.05 | 0.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.61 | 1.36 |