← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Fri, Apr 18, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Kherradji
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 51% | 57% | 1.88 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.65 | fair |
| Nantes win | 22% | 19% | 4.49 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −0.5 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Nantes −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 48% | 1.89 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 52% | 2.01 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Anthony Lopes · Nantes |
| 20' | 🟨 | Nathan Zeze · Nantes |
| 23' | ⚽ | Adrien Truffert · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 28' | 🟨 | Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes |
| 44' | 🟨 | Lorenz Assignon · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Mousa Tamari · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Douglas Augusto · Nantes |
| 54' | ⚽ | Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes |
| 57' | 🟥 | Marcus Coco · Nantes |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kelvin Amian · Nantes |
| 86' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 24 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| ⚽ |
| Mohamed Kader Meite · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ludovic Blas · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 107.00 | 413.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1722.21 | 1624.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.02 | 7.00 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 33.60 |
| rest days | 5.15 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -1.09 |
| solidity v1 | -0.07 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.20 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.36 | 2.19 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 0.88 |