← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sun, Apr 13, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 53% | 50% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.94 | value: +4% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 22% | 24% | 4.41 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre +0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Olympique Lyonnais +0.75 | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 46% | 2.53 | value: +18% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Sinaly Diomandé · AJ Auxerre |
| 52' | 🟨 | Donovan Léon · AJ Auxerre |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Georges Mikautadze · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 58' | 🟨 | Thiago Almada · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rayan Cherki · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 77' | ⚽ | Lassine Sinayoko · AJ Auxerre |
| 84' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rudy Matondo · AJ Auxerre |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 925.00 | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.28 | 1.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1705.93 | 1850.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.29 | -0.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.64 | 1.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 38.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 90.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 7.15 | 2.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 2.00 |
| solidity v1 | 0.50 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 28.37 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.47 | 1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.28 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.44 |