← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 12, 07:05 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| OGC Nice win | 39% | 37% | 2.51 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 33% | 37% | 2.95 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.45 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| OGC Nice +0.25 | 46% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 23 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 5 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand