← Ligue 1 2024-25 · Sat, Apr 5, 05:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| AS Monaco FC win | 54% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.89 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 21% | 26% | 4.57 | value: +20% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 +0.75 | 52% | 1.89 |
| AS Monaco FC +0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 41% | 2.50 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.